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Ireland. Reported homeland of 40 million Americans, yet boasts a total population of only 3.6 million. Internationally renowned for its tourism trade, based on spectacular scenery, warm welcomes and the infamous Northern 'Troubles'. Until recently, this was the only international image portrayed of Ireland.

However, in the recent past, the Irish economy has been enjoying the before-unimaginable success of what has been coined 'The Celtic Tiger'. Economic boom normally not associated with small open economies has arrived after so many barren years. Modern day life in the Republic of Ireland has never been better. The 'Celtic Tiger' began to roar here a few years ago and continues to do so. For the first time in decades we have been following a path of economic growth (three times the EU average), industrial and technological boom, government success in ridding the deficit of the balance of payments and an amazingly high proportion of exports. We have finally earned our place on the international stage of economic success- and plan to stay there.

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

 Contents

Before the 'Great Famine' in the mid-19^th century, Ireland had roughly double the population of today. The population dropped by around half in 40 years and the trend continued on into this century, due to famine deaths and emigration. The latter has continued on into the 1990s, with the main destination of migrants being USA and mainland Britain. The only period of exception to this century-long trend was the 1970s, when we had a few years of net immigration (due to economic prosperity at that time).

However, this 'blip' didn't last and in the early 1980s we were back to a situation of net emigration again.

Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

In order to fully appreciate the changing economic climate and its effect on population, we should look at the chances over the past decade.

Ten years ago fiscal excess and economic stagnation were accepted as being par for the course (government borrowing in 1987 reached 120% National Income, compared to the negligible level of today and the level of public debt, which is less then 80% GDP.)

All figures available indicate an indisputable extraordinary rate of growth over the past 10 years, more in line with an East Asian than European Country.

One suggestion as to why our economy grew so quickly is that having endured a bad recession in the early 1980s, Ireland began a period of growth while the rest of Europe was faring badly.

New investment has poured in (mainly due to corporation taxes of just 10%) especially from America: to the tune of $3000 per head of population. In fact, foreign-owned firms are said to account for 30% of the economy and nearly 40% of exports.

The labour force is peculiar in the Ireland of today and we are experiencing a demographic shift due to a falling birth rate rise in economic participation of women and new-found immigration.

Migration has been used in Ireland for centuries as a safety valve: people leave in bad times and return in good! It's amazing to think that over half those who left school in the 1950s emigrated within a decade.

According to The Economist' article, Green is Good P.23-26 (17/05/1998) the expansion of the working labour force has brought many benefits... an increase in productivity leading to a rise in living standards. Inflationary pressures have been lessened since migrant movement is sensitive to the state of the economy. However, although the growth has not caused a rise in inflation, it has not led to a fall in unemployment either because the rise in demand for labour has merely been met by a corresponding rise in the labour force and a changing pattern of migration.

Looking to the future, demographic change is predicted to aid the Irish economy for some years to come and standards of education will continue to rise as the population ages. This has led to the prediction of 5% annual growth for the forseeable future, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute.

These trends are also in keeping with those put forward and presented in 'Eurostat'(Theme 3, Series D), whose figures, although published in 1988 are surprisingly accurate to date.

Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

This can best be demonstrated by dividing the country's 26 counties into its 4 provincial boundaries.

1. ULSTER



	1981	% change	1986	% change	1991	% change	1996
		81-'86		86-'91		91-'96
Cavan	53855	0.2	53965	-2.2	52796	0.3	52944
Donegal	125112	3.6	129664	-1.2	128117	1.5	129944
Monaghan	51192	2.3	52379	-2.1	51293	0.04	51313
TOTAL	230159	2.5	236008	-1.6	232206	0.9	234251

 

As 6 of this province's 9 counties are British, the remaining 3 have obviously a small population base.

`81-`86

Between 1981 and 1986, there were, in fact, small population increases in both Donegal and Monaghan while the population of Cavan remained virtually unchanged.

`86-`91

All counties experienced a decrease between `86-`91.

`91-`96

We can see an increase, albeit marginal in all three counties from `91-`96, in sharp contrast to the loss of the previous period. These counties have a heavy agricultural base and therefore we would not expect to see a significant demographic change.

 

Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

 

 

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2. MUNSTER



	1981	% change	1986	% change	1991	% change	1996
		81-'86		86-'91		91-'96
Clare	87567	4.3	91344	-0.5	90918	3.4	94006
Cork Co. Borough	136344	-2.3	133271	-4.5	127253	-0.03	127187
Cork County	266121	5.0	279464	1.3	283116	3.6	293323
Kerry	122770	1.1	124159	-1.8	121894	3.5	126130
Limerick Co. Borough	60736	-7.3	56271	-7.4	52083	-0.05	52039
Limerick County	100925	7.3	108290	1.5	109873	2.9	113003
Tipperary N.R.	58984	0.9	59522	-2.8	57854	0.3	58021
Tipperary S.R.	76277	1.1	77079	-2.8	74917	0.8	75514
Waterford Co. Borough	38473	2.7	39529	2.0	40328	5.5	42540
Waterford County	50118	3.0	51622	-0.6	51296	1.6	52140
TOTAL	998315	2.2	1020577	-1.1	1009533	2.4	1033903

 

`81-`86

Population declines of 7.3% and 2.3% were recorded for the Co. Boroughs of Limerick and Cork respectively. A population increase was observed for all the other counties and county boroughs, the largest increases being 7.3%, 5% and 4.3% for the counties of Limerick, Cork and Clare.

`86-`91

The populations grew in the counties of Cork, Limerick and the Co. Borough of Waterford, but decreased in all other areas.

`91-`96

We can see that there was an overall increase of 2.4% in the province's population, with the main rises being in Clare, Cork Co; Waterford Co. Borough and also Kerry.

Any county population decreases were negligible: eg. Cork Co. Borough, where a drop of 0.03% only signified a loss of 34 people!

Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

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3. CONNACHT

Both the populations of Galway Co. Borough and County increased, and small increases were observed for Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo, while that of Leitrim declined by around 600.

The only area showing an increase in population was Galway Co. Borough. All other areas showed decreases. Those which stand out are Leitrim, Roscommon and Mayo (combined loss of 4.5%)

There was an overall increase in population in all areas apart from Leitrim. However, the outstanding statistic is the rise in Galway Co. Borough- an incredible 12.5% in 5 years, which accounts for 75% of the total provincial increase.

 Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

1. LEINSTER

There was an overall increase in the population of Leinster- in all counties. The major changes were: 11.6% increase in Kildare and relatively high rises in both Wicklow and Meath.

The population remained relatively stagnant, apart from the continued increase in Kildare (5.5%).

There were increases throughout the province- and once again, a huge increase in Kildare (from an already-high base) of 10%. There were also notable increases in Wicklow and Meath again.

Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

A lot of emphasis has been placed by foreign investors when asked why they chose Ireland on the following factors:

• High standards of Irish education and therefore availability of a skilled workforce.
• Low corporation tax and tax breaks on exported goods offered as incentives by the Irish Government.
• Generous start-up grants available from the Irish Government providing certain criteria are fulfilled (with regards to size of workforce, location)
• Plentiful availability of land, especially outside Dublin.
• Ireland provides a cost-effective stepping stone for easy access into Europe.

 Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

Employers came in from abroad to establish their businesses, mainly in the areas of computing, electronics, banking, food processing, pharmaceuticals and telemarketing). These obviously created jobs which led to two strategic demographic changes:

1. Fall in emigration: Recent school-leavers and graduates stayed in Ireland to work. Instead of a large outflux which was the norm every summer, many now take the opportunity to work at home.
2. A rise in immigration: Numbers coming into the country soared as job availability increased. What makes Ireland's situation quite unique is that most of those coming in are Irish-born, but have gone abroad in the past to seek work and return due to the new, optimistic economic climate.

This situation of net immigration is even enough to outweigh the falling birth rates which have become a 'sign of the times' as people plan their families (in many cases in accordance with their income), women go out to work and people are waiting longer to have children. So, although the number of births has halved in 20 years and is at present relatively low, it is still one of the highest in Europe!

Another factor which has had an immense effect on the population rise of the '90s is that people are now living longer, be it due to a better healthcare system and the availability of new treatments or that our welfare system now means no Irishman should face physical hardship- in turn aiding longevity. In fact, the death rate had dropped by 0.3 deaths per 1000 population in only five years (1990-1995).

Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES

From the figures presented on Ireland's four cities, there are some population movements which should be highlighted, looking at movements over a 10-year period.

Dublin: The overall rise of 3.6% is relatively small but what is significant is the geographic dispersion of the population change: while the city centre loses residents, its surrounding areas all increase, especially Fingal- by 21.1%! We should also note the rise in South Dublin's figures of 9.6%.

Cork: The same has occurred: a city depopulation and a hinterland increase in population balancing each other out.

Limerick: The scenario is the same as that of Cork, but using different figures!

Galway: This 'City of the Tribes' has been the exception to the trend in the other cities- a rise in the city population of an amazing 21.5% in 10 years, yet the hinterland has had basically no change! This may be because only in the last decade has Galway become developed properly as a city and even yet there is land available around the city centre.

The reason for city centre depopulation is mainly due to rising prices (making it impossible for ordinary working people to afford property there), better infrastructures, ease of access and less pollution outside the city centre. As a result, people have headed in droves to live in the suburbs.

Looking at rural depopulation, the only area affected by depopulation was Leitrim between 1991-1996. It therefore seems reasonable to conclude that all areas have enjoyed population rises as a direct result of the success of the 'Celtic Tiger'.

However sceptical some economists may be about the sustainability of Ireland's growth, the truth is that no-one knows what will happen in the future: just as no-one foresaw this great economic boom, nor is anyone truly able to accurately predict future trends and statistics in the dynamic international scene.

For more information contact me at judith.christie@nuigalway.ie

For more information check out these web sites.

www.irish-times.com/irish-times/paper/1996/0801/fro3.html

www.irish-times.com/irish-times/paper/1996/0801/hom9.html

www.irish-times.com/irish-times/paper/1996/1001/hom15.html

www.irish-times.com/irish-times/paper/1997/1030/hom11.html

 Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

MAJOR CHANGES OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

 POPULATION CHANGE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS

 WHY DID FOREIGN INVESTORS CHOOSE IRELAND?

REASONS FOR POPULATION CHANGE

 GROWTH OF MAJOR CITIES